Bakery is a daily essential for almost everyone, but that essential doesn’t stay the same and consumer preferences are constantly changing. Maintaining a competitive advantage in the bakery sector requires the ability to adapt to consumer demands. With the support of McKinsey & Company, Innova Market Insights and Mintel, we have put together a trends forecast for 2024, which identify key consumer behaviours for more informed decision making.

Our latest trends forecast is available to download in a convenient infographic for you to share with colleagues and customers.

Download infographic

THE CONSUMER

According to McKinsey & Company, there are four trends in consumer behaviour:

  1. Trading down & splurging selectively
  2. Shopping everywhere and all at once
  3. Finding comfort in familiarity & exploring brand promiscuity
  4. Demand sustainability and affordability.

The ConsumerWise proprietary research¹ spans nearly 20 markets and covers 90% of global GDP.

In Europe, 84% of consumers perceive branded products as having similar quality to private labels. At the same time 44% of consumers around the world (and 60% of Gen Zers and millennials) plan to splurge, particularly on items which are experimental or deliver instant gratification. Shoppers who splurge in some categories may seek value in others.

Consumers are increasingly adopting new shopping channels. In fact, the majority now use at least three. This stems from those they first tried during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as grocery delivery.

Consumers are trying new products and brands: 1 in 3 did so in the 3 months to June 2023, with Gen Zers and millennials particularly displaying these behaviours. Cast our minds back ten years and a typical household would have just one type of bread in the kitchen, but one today might buy sandwich loaves for everyday sandwiches, sourdoughs for special occasions and flat breads to accompany their internationally-inspired evening mealtimes.

Consumers are increasingly seeking out sustainable products and brands which align to their own sustainability values. 84% say that sustainability is a very important factor in their purchase decisions. However, in times of inflation, 50% are unsure if they would pay a premium for these products. Still, NPD which includes sustainability-related claims is outpacing products with no such claims.

As consumers, we’re all too familiar with juggling the need to be healthy and enjoying life to the fullest. With bakery delivering across a number of touch points – from everyday items, little pick-me-ups, treats for special moments, familiar flavours and bakes that comfort us, to eating to stay healthy – it is well placed to meet a variety of consumer needs.

WHOLESOME ENJOYMENT OF PRODUCTS WITH HEALTH BENEFITS

Escalating uncertainty around the globe and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, means consumers are increasingly looking for ways to feel in control. The increased availability of information about specific ingredients and their benefits has empowered consumers to build their personalised wellness routines, including in their diet.

In terms of formats, we can expect all baked goods currently popular in out-of-home operators to continue to be in 2024. However, with increased emphasis on nutrition and health, balanced with a continuing desire for indulgence and novelty. Therefore, we can expect to see growing interest in bread products offering something different from the everyday sandwich carriers and, as our love of coffee shops continues, sweet and savoury snacks to suit all moods too.

SIMPLE PLEASURES

According to Innova’s 2023 research, 61% of people worldwide say that everyday moments of happiness is the most common form of treat and reward across the age groups². When targeting this opportunity, there are also important country differences to consider.

Consumers in China, France, India and Indonesia most strongly favour moments of happiness to experience over everyday treats to consume. Solution: Boosting mood, driving emotional connections, and creating moments to remember. German consumers in contrast, favour everyday treats to consume so are likely to be more engaged with the consumption experience itself delivering against their needs from a treat. Solution: Sensory attributes like texture and flavour as well as ingredients and packaging.

Consumers are becoming more selective, and conscious of their spending habits than in the past. Having less cash available for discretionary spending is likely to mean people prioritising weekend treats rather than weekday ones in the out-of-home market, including going out for breakfasts, a major opportunity for bread and morning goods. That being said, due to an increase in mental health awareness since the lockdowns ended, ‘simple pleasures’ are being enjoyed more than ever.

Flavours also play a role in meeting mood needs, according to Innova’s recent Global Trends Report into Fruit Flavours³, with consumers scoring tropical fruit flavours their top choice for feeling cheerful, stimulated, energized and refreshed. While berries, summer and orchard fruit flavours are the preferred flavour for health, and citrus for when they want to feel comforted. Looking at the top fruit flavours used in bakery, citrus flavours lead in Western Europe, while berries and summer fruits are particularly popular in North America, with blueberry ranking highly. Exotic fruit flavours are more sought after in Asian and Latin American bakery NPD.

FLAVOUR EXPLORATION

Bakery welcomes influence from the wider food and beverage sector, so it’s appropriate to consider how broader flavour trends are developing, to see what opportunites present themselves for bakery in 2024.

FLORAL FANTASY

The shift towards wellness and sustainability is reshaping flavour innovation, with 48% of consumers globally saying healthy/better-for-you flavours most influence their food and beverage choice. Additionally, 1 in 3 have looked for more floral flavours in food and beverage categories over the past year4.

For bakeries looking to experiment with these flavours, chamomile (+32%), honeysuckle (+21%) and rose (+13%) are the fastest growing flavours in new launches globally5, and cakes and sweet baked goods are an exciting opportunity to showcase these floral flavours.

INDULGE IN IMAGINATION

Unleash the magic on consumer taste buds with the wonders of fantasy flavours. While the stress caused by the pandemic may no longer be central to consumer needs for fun and escapism, they still crave enjoyment and playfulness and this can fuel demand for fantasy flavours.

Rainbow (+141%), cosmic (+20%) and dream (+18) are the fastest-growing fantasy flavours globally6. Bakery provides a foundation to experiment with colour and futuristic flavours, in part fuelled by Ai-generated concepts and sure to capture the imagination of the 1 in 3 Gen Z and millennial consumers globally who are looking for new/unique flavours in food and beverage5.

“NEWSTALGIC:” CLASSIC CREATIONS MEET MODERN BITES

Consumers are continually rediscovering comfort in familiar classic flavours, with new twists. 44% of consumers globally agree that traditional/nostalgic flavours most influence their food and beverage choice4, and brands will inspire Millennials and Gen Z ers with familar throwbacks, such as Rainbow Sherbet Flavoured Push Pops showcased by Bell Flavors and Fragrances.

LOCAL DELIGHTS

Driven by cravings and curiosity, consumers are increasingly excited to try diverse flavours inspired by specific regions. 2 in 3 are open to trying new global cuisines next year, with half seeking street food flavour-inspired products5.

The quest for products which remind consumers of places they have travelled is not a new one, but continues to present opportunity for bakeries to tap into consumers’ desire to experience the tastes of their travels. Think New York style cheesecake or vanilla bean waffles inspired by classic Belgian-style street food.

EATING TO ENJOY SPECIAL MOMENTS

Consumers gain satisfaction from a wide variety of activities and states, differing according to income and geography. Close connections with family and partners rank top as sources of pleasure and reward in the past 12 months, while “me” time ranks second across all age groups, from 18-24s to over 55’s². Sweet treats and other bakery items are central to the moments that consumers find special, and create a catalyst for conversation and enjoyment.

EATING TO STAY WELL FOR LONGER

People are enjoying extended lifespans and longer working lives. Healthy ageing is set to be redefined by debunking ‘old’ stigmas and prioritising extending consumers’ healthy years by eating healthily7. Proper nutrition plays a pivotal role in maintaining overall health as we age, and can significantly impact the development and progression of age-related conditions such as diabetes, bone and joint issues, and heart disease.

The pandemic kick-started a shift towards healthier lives, with more onus on the individual, and now consumers are much more aware. Mintel’s report points to enhanced transparency around food processing over the next two to five years creating better-informed food and drink shoppers. Minimally processed products that boast higher nutritional value and are easy to use will win over more consumers. Today’s concerns about ultra-processed food and drink will build on the aversion to artificial ingredients, making consumers turn to bakers. However, say the researchers, moving beyond the sentimental stories of craft and artisan techniques, they will want to know how processing improves bakers’ products. In the coming years, Mintel also predict interest will grow in less processed food made with upcycled ingredients rich in vitamins, minerals, fibre, protein and other nutrients.

Members of Generation X, those currently in their mid-40s-to-late-50s, are pioneering a new approach to healthy ageing that includes products that will help them thrive in their diverse lifestyles now and for decades to come. The new focus for ageing societies will be an extended healthspan — the period of life spent in good health, which requires a proactive long-term strategy. Importantly, Gen X’s are openly discussing and leading conversations around ageing concerns that were once considered taboo.

Bakels 2024 trends infographic is available to download here and we are at your service to provide you with the insight you need to grow your business.